Tariff Fallout: Which U.S. Cities Will Take the Hardest Hit? 

[OTTAWA, CANADA] — [March 27, 2025] — The trade war launched by the U.S. administration will impact communities across America, closing the door on mutually beneficial trade and risking entire supply chains that count on Canada’s reliable market. More than 60% of the products the U.S. imports from Canada are intermediate goods — things like lumber, oil, steel, nuts and bolts — that power the U.S. economy and its massive export capacity. Simply, Canada’s economic partnership has added to America’s success, while tariffs subtract from both of us. 

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab (BDL) today released new research on which U.S. cities are most export-dependent on Canada and therefore most vulnerable to the consequences of reduced Canadian demand as a result of tariffs. The research evaluates the top 41 U.S. metropolitan areas based on their Canada dependence measure: a city’s share of exports to Canada and the export value as a share of their local economy (GDP), relative to U.S. averages. The BDL previously conducted analysis on Canada’s largest cities most export-dependant on the U.S. 

Key findings:  

• San Antonio, Detroit, and Kansas City have the highest Canadian dependence score. 

• Houston, Chicago, and Detroit are the largest exporters to Canada by value, with Houston shipping $18 billion to Canada in 2023. 

• Laredo, Texas, and Detroit, Michigan — key trade gateways — have the highest export value as a share of their GDP.  

• Two-thirds of the 41 U.S. cities most dependent on Canadian demand are located in states that voted for President Trump in the 2024 presidential election. 

America’s most export-dependent cities on Canada are at significant risk in this trade war. San Antonio, Detroit, and Kansas City being the top three most vulnerable underscores that trade interdependence with Canada touches every corner of the U.S., affecting millions of local jobs and long-term relationships built over decades. Policymakers weighing next moves would do well to remember the livelihoods that hang in the balance and that our geography makes us stronger, together.

Andrew DiCapua, Principal Economist, Canadian Chamber of Commerce

The Canadian dependence measure helps determine relative exposure of each city compared to the U.S. average, so even those communities lower on the list will still feel the pain from less sales to Canada — less exports could lead to less economic activity (GDP) and job losses that would also impact other industries. Canadian sentiment toward purchasing American goods has already notably deteriorated.Weaker consumer and business confidence could also further slow the U.S. economy.  

Our supply chains were set up to benefit all of us because it makes sense economically. Americans facing challenges around affordability, durable businesses and creating well-paying jobs have counted on Canada for generations. This trade war has severely cracked the greatest partnership the world has ever seen.  

To learn more about the most vulnerable cities and see where your city is on the ranking, take a look at the full report.  

About the Canadian Chamber of Commerce — The Future of Business Success 

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is Canada’s largest and most activated business network — representing over 400 chambers of commerce and boards of trade and more than 200,000 business of all sizes, from all sectors of the economy and from every part of the country — working to create the conditions for our collective success. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is the undisputed champion and catalyst for the future of business success. From working with government on economy-friendly policy to providing services that inform commerce and enable trade, we give each of our members more of what they need to succeed: insight into markets, competitors and trends, influence over the decisions and policies that drive business success and impact on business and economic performance.   

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Contact 

Shane Mackenzie 
Vice-President, Media Relations & Stakeholder Relations 
Canadian Chamber of Commerce 
613.238.4000 (2343) 
smackenzie@chamber.ca  

Rewa Mourad 
Public Relations Specialist  
Canadian Chamber of Commerce 
613.238.4000 (2211) 
rmourad@chamber.ca