Our Statement on the PBO’s Impact Assessment of the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap

Yesterday’s report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) confirmed what the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and industry leaders have been warning all along: the Oil & Gas Emissions Cap will directly curb production, cost jobs, and ultimately making Canada and its citizens economically worse off. With global competition heating up and President Trump’s tariff strategy already sending shockwaves through our economy, Canada simply can’t afford to keep tying its own hands.

The report also raises serious concerns about the government’s calculations and assumptions used to justify its policies. Even more concerning, this emissions cap is just one of several policies — including the Impact Assessment Act, Methane Regulations, and the “Greenwashing” amendment to the Competition Act — that disproportionately, or even exclusively, target Canada’s oil and gas sector, a key driver of our economy.

The numbers speak for themselves: billions in lost GDP, tens of thousands of lost jobs, and shrinking investment. Canada needs solutions that attract investment and drive economic growth, not more red tape that weakens our competitive edge. Climate action remains a priority, but it needs a strong economy to succeed—something this emissions cap puts at risk. 

It’s time to reverse course and do what’s right for Canada: scrap this emissions cap before it does irreparable damage.

• Bryan N. Detchou, Senior Director, Natural Resources, Environment and Sustainability, Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

PBO Report Highlights

• Highlights In the absence of the Government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap regulations, PBO’s baseline scenario indicates that upstream oil and gas emissions will exceed the legal upper bound (that is, the maximum allowable emissions) of 160 megatonnes (Mt) by 7.1 Mt annually, on average, over the first compliance period 2030 to 2032.
• To achieve the legal upper bound, PBO estimates indicate that upstream oil and gas sector production will need to be reduced by 4.9 per cent over 2030 to 2032 relative to projected levels in the baseline scenario. That said, under the proposed regulations production is projected to be 11.1 per cent higher, on average, over 2030 to 2032 compared to current levels.
• PBO estimates that the required reduction in upstream oil and gas sector production levels will lower real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada by 0.39 per cent in 2032 and reduce nominal GDP by $20.5 billion. PBO estimates that achieving the legal upper bound will reduce economy-wide employment in Canada by 40,300 jobs and full-time equivalents by 54,400 in 2032

About the Canadian Chamber of Commerce — The Future of Business Success 

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is Canada’s largest and most activated business network — representing over 400 chambers of commerce and boards of trade and more than 200,000 business of all sizes, from all sectors of the economy and from every part of the country — working to create the conditions for our collective success. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is the undisputed champion and catalyst for the future of business success. From working with government on economy-friendly policy to providing services that inform commerce and enable trade, we give each of our members more of what they need to succeed: insight into markets, competitors and trends, influence over the decisions and policies that drive business success, and impact on business and economic performance.   

Media Contact

Shane Mackenzie
Vice President, Media and Stakeholder Communications
613.302.7683
smackenzie@chamber.ca